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Huge RNAV Discount, supportive Top-Down

As previously announced, Bank Indonesia cut its interest rate by 25bps while the Fed cut its interest rat by 50bps. When interest rates are reduced, it can have several positive effects on the property industry.


Fed Fund Rate


BI Rate


Interest rate cut translates to lower mortgage rates for homebuyers. This makes borrowing more affordable, leading to lower monthly payments on mortgages, thus attracting more potential buyers into the market.

We also see that there would be a boost in housing demand as homebuyers can afford larger or more expensive homes for the same monthly payment. This increased affordability drives up demand for homes, stimulating sales in both primary residences and investment properties.


In summary, rate cuts can greatly benefit the property industry by making borrowing cheaper, increasing demand, boosting property prices, encouraging real estate development, and fostering a positive economic environment for both residential and commercial real estate.


On 2Q24, SMRA reported earnings of IDR312bn (+83% YoY/-29% QoQ), driven by strong revenue recognition from landed housing. However, revenue growth came with margin contraction, which primarily caused by a one-off tax expense related to the transfer of MKG to SMIP.



marketing sales reached IDR912bn on 2Q24, with approximately IDR500bn contributed by projects eligible for the PPNDTP incentive.


Marketing sales reached IDR1.7tn in 1H24, accounting for 34% of management’s FY24 guidance. The company plans to accelerate sales in 2H24 with key project launches, such as the Ebony Cluster in Bogor. In addition, the 100% PPNDTP incentive extension should serve as a key catalyst in the coming quarters.



We maintain our BUY rating with a target price of IDR810, implying a 73% discount to RNAV and 1.0x forward P/B.



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