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Lights, Camera, Action!

Captivating audiences and sparking debate, the film 'Vina: Sebelum 7 Hari' has not only drawn crowds to theaters but also reignited interest in the real-life case that inspired it. 

With ticket sales soaring past 2 million, this cinematic endeavor has thrust the once-dormant case back into the spotlight

As the story of Vina returns to public discourse, the West Java Police Department has re-issued a search for three fugitives linked to the 2016 murder, a case that still haunts the community. 

Recently, the official Instagram account of West Java Police's Public Relations @humaspoldajabar, released updated descriptions of the suspects still at large.

Source: Instagram, Humas Polda Jabar

Additionally, the films 'Badarawuhi in Desa Penari' and 'Siksa Kubur' have each nearly reached an audience of 4 million viewers!

Source: Databoks, as of May 13, 2024

With such blockbuster performances, there's hope that these local films will boost CNMA's revenue in 2Q24. But before we forecast future gains, let's first review the financial results of CNMA for 1Q24.

CNMA has reported a significant yoy revenue growth of 48%, reaching IDR 1.3 tn. This impressive increase is largely due to a 56% yoy rise in ticket sales, totaling 21.1 mn tickets. A major contributor to this success was the film 'Agak Laen', which alone attracted over 9 mn viewers nationwide.

Source: Sucor Research

The impact of this film extended beyond just ticket sales; it significantly boosted cinema occupancy rates to 24.1%, up from 19.6% the previous year. This marks a clear increase in popularity and foot traffic to cinemas.

Despite these impressive achievements, Cinema XXI experienced an 8% qoq revenue decline. This downturn was largely due to a slump in F&B segment, affected by the fasting season and a decrease in purchasing power.

From a bottom-line, CNMA has effectively turned its financial situation around, moving from a loss of IDR 24 bn in 1Q23 to a positive outcome in 1Q24. This recovery has resulted in improvements across several key financial metrics. Specifically, the GPM, OPM, and NPM have all increased this quarter.

Source: Bloomberg

CNMA's management has delivered some encouraging news, promising a bright outlook for the future. Ticket sales in April and May have shown a notable increase, with the ATP rising to IDR 43,600.

Interestingly, a more balanced offering between local films and Hollywood releases in the second quarter of 2024 has opened new avenues for growth. 

The optimism is further fueled by management's confidence in the influx of Hollywood blockbusters set to entertain audiences through the end of 2024.

Ah, can’t wait for these films!

We believe that the second quarter will be strong due to the success of current blockbuster films and that the momentum will continue throughout the year with an exciting lineup of films yet to premiere.

With all these positive outlooks, our analyst continues to maintain a BUY recommendation for CNMA with a target price of IDR 312.


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